What We Learned This Week

Tariffs Paused for 90 Days: In a week dominated by headline after headline on tariffs, markets finally got a bit of relief on Wednesday. Just as the sweeping reciprocal tariffs—impacting over 80 countries with rates as high as 50%—went into effect at 12:01 AM, the Trump administration announced a partial pivot. In a post to social media, the President declared a 90-day pause on those reciprocal tariffs, citing that more than 75 countries had reached out to begin negotiations on trade, currency, and related policy issues. Those negotiations are set to unfold during the 90-day pause. The blanket 10% tariff on all foreign imports will remain in place during that period.

One key exception? China. Trump specifically called out China for refusing to cooperate or engage, leading to an escalation of tensions. The U.S. raised its tariff on Chinese imports to 104%, only for China to respond with 84% retaliatory tariffs early Wednesday. Hours later, Trump pushed the U.S. tariff even further—to 125%—effective immediately. Despite the tension with China, markets staged their biggest single-day rally in over five years, likely responding to the broader reprieve and hope for de-escalation elsewhere. That said, calling this an "all clear" moment would be premature. Whether this is a coordinated strategy to isolate China or simply a reaction to global pushback remains to be seen. For now, we’ll take the breather. Let’s hope the 90-day window brings more clarity—for both markets and business operators trying to plan through all of this. And as always, in times like these, long-term perspective matters more than ever.

Walmart Pulls Guidance: We got a closer look into the consumer landscape this week as Walmart hosted its major investor conference. Unsurprisingly, tariffs and trade were front and center. The company described the current operating environment as highly fluid and maintained its near-term guidance while pulling full-year profit forecasts altogether—citing a range of potential outcomes that’s just too wide to offer anything useful. Given that many retailers took a cautious stance entering the year, it’s at least somewhat reassuring that Walmart’s baseline assumptions for Q1 are still intact.

Executives did acknowledge, however, that the evolving trade situation is starting to show up in consumer behavior, with noticeable shifts in purchasing patterns emerging weekly—sometimes even daily. That said, Walmart is arguably better positioned than most. Roughly two-thirds of what it sells in the U.S. is sourced domestically, with the rest primarily tied to China and Mexico. Its Walmart+ membership program continues to scale well, providing a stable recurring revenue stream, and its e-commerce business is on track to hit profitability this quarter. Still, rising costs and softening demand tied to tariffs are real risks. That’s why Walmart shares rallied nearly 9% on the back of the 90-day tariff pause—proof that “fluid” might be the best way to describe the current environment.

Don’t Expect a “Made in the USA” Stamp on Your iPhone: The Wall Street Journal ran a compelling piece this week exploring the feasibility of manufacturing the iPhone in the U.S.—a topic that’s resurfaced under the renewed pressure from the Trump administration. While the idea plays well politically, the reality is far more complicated. In the short term, it’s simply not possible. And even over the long term, it would require a massive overhaul of the U.S. manufacturing infrastructure. Apple sources components from around the world, and many of the machines and processes required to build them—especially the most advanced chips—don’t even exist stateside, nor do we have the skilled labor to operate them.

The article argues that while assembling more of the iPhone domestically might eventually be feasible, fully repatriating production would mean building an entirely new manufacturing economy from scratch. The result? A much more expensive iPhone and likely a long period of inefficiency. It also raises the broader question of whether the U.S. even wants these kinds of jobs back. While the rhetoric is a consistent political talking point, it highlights the enormous complexity behind seemingly simple slogans. Apple has largely tried to stay out of the political spotlight in recent years—but with this conversation heating up again, that may be getting harder to do.